Land Reform and its Economic Impact - graphs

October 2012

GRAPHS FOR AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND THE ECONOMY
ROBERTSON ECONOMIC SERVICES

http://www.robertsoneconomics.com

John Robertson
jmrobertson@umaxlife.co.zw

FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION   PERCENTAGES IN 1996

FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION   PERCENTAGES IN 2007

FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION   1996 and  2007

FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION   PERCENTAGES IN 2012

ZIMBABWE:GDP ANNUAL % CHANGE

ZIMBABWE’S 110 YEAR RAINFALL RECORD Mean Annual Figures in Millimetres

RAINFALL & GDP COMPAREDNational Average for years to June 30

AGRICULTURE Maize Production

MAIZE PRICEDecember 2000 to September 27 2012

AGRICULTURE Wheat Production

AGRICULTURE Soya Production

AGRICULTURE Coffee Production

AGRICULTURE Tea Production

FLUE-CURED TOBACCOCommercial Growers  -  Mass Sold

Disappointing prices in 1998 and the demand that the levy imposed on growers should be paid even if prices were below production costs caused about 1,400 small-scale growers to stop producing the crop.

AGRICULTURE Paprika Production

AGRICULTURE Whole Milk Deliveries -- Litres ’000

AGRICULTURE Beef Production

Breeding stock appears to have been cut by as much as 75% in the last two years and massive stock theft has impacted upon the viability of the beef industry. The remaining herds country-wide are now at risk from foot-and-mouth because of the destruction of fencing and the illegal movement of animals from high-risk zones. Beef sales have improved, but no exports are yet permitted.

AGRICULTRAL PRODUCTION INDEXBASE: 2000=100

MANUFACTURING All Groups Annual Indices

The five-year decline in the manufacturing output index from 108 in 1997 to 64 in 2003 amounted to a cumulative fall of 40,7%.  After a brief improvement, the declining trend resumed until 2009.

COMMENT

The Land Reform programme was announced in 1997, with the land invasions taking place in February 2000, just days after President Mugabe lost a constitutional referendum which would have further entrenched his power. 

The Gross Domestic Product graph shows that GDP has declined every year since 1999.

Comparing the GDP percentage changes with rainfall figures for the years before 1997, the clear indications of GDP declines in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1992 and 1995 can be seen to coincide with very low rainfall years. The 1992 rainfall was the lowest on record.

In the 13 years since the announcement of Land Reform, Zimbabwe has experienced four below average rainfall years, but only the 2002 and 2005 seasons could be classified as drought years. However, neither of these was serious as the preceding year’s rains were good and the storage dams were almost full. 

Government has claimed that the agricultural failures since land reform were the result of droughts and illegal economic sanctions, but economic sanctions against the country as a whole do not exist and the only severe drought affected the southern half of Zimbabwe in the 2006 / 2007 growing season. Some other seasons had been disappointing, which is a very common occurrence in Zimbabwe, but good crops would have been possible in those years if the experienced commercial farmers had still been on the land.

The ruling party in Zimbabwe has chosen not to be persuaded by arguments that claim the current problems stem from the land reform programme, or that these were all accentuated by the profound linkages between agriculture and every other economic and social sector in the country. Instead, they have preferred to argue that colonialism and residual western influences have conspired to undermine traditional African socialist and communal ownership traditions and values.

All policy prescriptions have therefore been backward-looking to romantic portrayals of less demanding pastoral lifestyles, while the systems of governance proposed have been discipline-orientated to encourage compliance and unquestioned obedience to the leadership.

 

JOHN ROBERTSON
ROBERTSON ECONOMIC SERVICES